Tuley’s Takes Today 10/31: Monday’s Best Bet, Contest Corner – VSiN Exclusive News – News


Sunday was another exciting, action-packed day, starting early with play in London and continuing well into the night, ending around 8:20pm PT.

As I mentioned in VSiN’s The Greg Peterson Experience (my regular spot is Sunday nights at 12:15am ET/9:15pm PT, or 15 minutes in the archives), favorites and underdogs ended up tied 6-6-1 ATS on the day and stated that the push on the Delfine-Lions shootout was when Miami closed -4 and ended up at number 31-27. Some people might have favorites leading 7-6 ATS (or even 8-5 if they consider the 49ers favorites despite closing as 1-point hounds with the Rams). Therefore, I would like to point out that these ATS betting results are intended as a snapshot of the big picture and it matters to individuals what numbers you bet the games on.

Personally, the day went well as we somehow won our best bet on the Packers +11 (and +11.5) as they stayed long enough to cover the back door in their 27-17 loss at the Bills. The day was a hard hit when we used to win at the Panthers + 4 at the Falcons because we thought we were a loser than a winner at DJ Moore’s Miracle TD and then we thought we were doomed , when he foolishly removed his helmet for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that resulted in a missed PAT. Man I’m going insane just reliving it but they still covered 37-34 OT losses. Unfortunately we lost our 3 other top plays at the Steelers, Cardinals and Giants but still prevailed as we scored all but one of our 2 team 6 point teasers as the Rams (set early when they hit +7 .5 were). lost but we won with all the teasers featuring the Broncos, Saints and Jets. And that’s after we hit both sides of Thursday’s Ravens-Buccaneers game with the Bucs +7.5 early and Ravens +8 late. All in all a fun and profitable weekend as we also won 3-1 ATS with our college football games on Friday and Saturday. We love football! Let’s wrap up the rest of the full day of betting action on Sunday, including a peek into the contest corner, and then offer our “take” on Monday (note: we don’t like the MNF game, but we do like the Phillies again in Game 3 of the World Series) as well as early NFL Week 9 games.

Sunday recaps

NFL: Bills defeated the Packers 27-17 on Sunday night but did NOT reveal a 10.5-point home favorite after the conclusion (the game remained under bets with a total of 47 points). That day (including the Broncos, who upset Jaguars 21-17 as a 1-point dog in the early London game), the favorites went 9-4 SU but tied 6-6-1 ATS. Home teams went 7-5 SU, but road teams led 6-5-1 ATS. Unders went 7-6.

More NFL: The favorites lead this season by 72-47-1 SU and 2 pick-’ems, but the underdogs still lead by 66-50-4 ATS (56.9%). Home teams lead 65-53-1 SU with 3 games on neutral ground, but street teams lead 61-54-4 ATS (53%). Unders lead 70-51-1 (57.9%) and primetime Unders lead 15-9 (62.5%).

More NFL: Faves went 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS with lonely upset by Saints (+1.5 vs. Raiders) in the kickoffs at 1 p.m. ET. The push was the Dolphins (closed -4) in the Lions’ 31-27 win. The Panthers (+4) covered 37-34 OT losses at Falcons. Home teams went 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS. Over 5-2. In the afternoon games, the favourites/hounds split 2-2 SU and ATS with surprises from Commanders (+3 at Colts) and 49ers (closed +1 at Rams after being favored all week). Road teams went 3-1 SU and ATS. Under 3-1.

NBA: Faves/Hounds split 4-4 SU, but the Dogs led 4-3-1 ATS with Push while Mavericks (-9) beat Magic 114-105. The surprises came from the Pistons (+7.5 vs Warriors), Spurs (+6 vs Timberwolves), Lakers (+2.5 vs Nuggets as they won Game 1 from a 0-5 start) and Pelicans ( + 2 at clippers). Home teams went 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS; Over 5-3.

More NBA: The Favorites lead 58-35 SU in the regular season with 2 games ending pick-’em, but the Dogs lead 46-41-6 ATS (52.9%). Home teams improved to 59-36 SU and 50-39-6 ATS (56.2%). The overs improved to 52-40-3 (56.5%).

NHL: Faves went 4-1 on Sunday, with the Ducks lonely (+160 in a 4-3 win over the Maple Leafs). Home teams went 3-2. Over 3-2. In the season, the favorites lead 82-55 with 6 games ending pick-’em. Home teams lead 79-62 with 2 games on neutral side. Unders fell to 72-70-1.

MLB (ICYMI): Faves/hounds and home/road teams are both 1-1 in the series so far, while overs lead 1-0-1. The Dogs still lead 18-17 in the playoffs overall, with 1 game ending pick-’em. The home teams improved to 21-15 overall. Over/unders stay at .500 with the boost at 17-17-2 overall.

competition corner

Circa Survivor will have 123 live entries after NFL Week 8 as only 2 were eliminated on Sunday: 1 against the Jaguars in their 21-17 early game loss to the Broncos in London and 1 against the Colts in their 17-16 -Defeat the commanders. The top picks all won: Cowboys (61), Eagles (38), Falcons (12), Dolphins (4), Seahawks (3), Titans (2) and Bills (2) plus 1 more at Patriots.

Circa Sports Million top 5 most-selected teams are 2-2 so far in NFL Week 8 (21-17-1 on the season), with Patriots wins -2.5 (#1 picks improved to 6-2 ) and Titans -2.5. Raiders -1.5 and Cardinals +3.5 losses. Browns + 3.5 is coming up on Monday Night Football. The SuperContest’s top 5 most-selected teams have tied 2-2 (23-16 on the season) so far this NFL Week 8 with wins over Patriots -2.5 (#1 picks improved to 5-3) and Titan’s -2. Losses to Cardinals +3.5 and Raiders -1.5. Browns + 3.5 is pending at MNF.

Monday’s takes

Phillies 1st 5+105 vs. Astros: We now get the Phillies as short house dogs. Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been used that much on the course and doesn’t always pitch many innings, but his stats are very similar to Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. (and Syndegaard has .82 WHIP in the last 3 starts) since his return to the NL, so we’re counting on him to keep the Phillies close early to cash that bet. We also like that our favorite Phillies (former boy Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper) will get more attacks against a right-handed starter. Remember we took them in Game 1 even though they faced Justin Verlander.

NFL Week 9 Lions +3.5 vs. Packers Panthers +9 at Bengals (Bet before their game on MNF)


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