Tiny Nick’s Gambling Tips: 25.09

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Castles

NCAA Football (1 unit) Colorado State Team Total Under 10.5 (-110): 2:30 p.m. CT on FS1

This Iowa defense really is something and they should easily stifle another losing opponent in this game.

The Hawkeyes allow an average of 10 points per game this season and now face their weakest opponent in the entire game plan. Kinnick Stadium is a difficult place, especially with an insane crowd upset over its high-ranking Hawkeyes. It’s even harder when you consider that Iowa has allowed an average of 9.4 PPG in the last 5 home competitions, up against much better competition than the state of Colorado. The Rams have only managed 22 PPG this season – good for 106th national spot – and against a really poor schedule, including one FCS opponent and perennial doormat Vanderbilt.

The country’s number 4 scorer defenders should have a big day here as they prepare for the tough part of their schedule. I’ll be amazed if Colorado State gets points in this game, so I love this game against such an elite defense.

NCAA Football (0.75 units) North Texas / LA Tech Over 64.5 (-110): 6:00 p.m. CT at the STADIUM

Yards, yards, yards and even more yards will define this game. And when you combine two teams that pull the ball like these two do, the scoring won’t let up.

Louisiana Tech ranks 129th in yards this season while North Texas ranks 113th, a rare matchup between teams that are bad at slowing their opponents. Both teams have their opponents convert these yards into points as well. LA Tech allows 38.7 PPG and lets SE Louisiana score 42 points, while North Texas gives up 29.7 PPG and had a slow UAB drop of 40 on them.

Fortunately for over-bettors, these offenses can also rack up the yards and points so they should score at will on a day the defense won’t show up. This matchup has exceeded that total in the past two seasons, and I see another highscore affair here, so take the lead.

NCAA Football (0.75 units) Navy @ Houston -19 (-110): 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPNU

They get a discount on that line because of the quarterback uncertainty for Houston, but I think it doesn’t matter against this really terrible Navy team.

Houston QB Clayton melody has a hamstring injury and may not be able to play this game. But backup Ike Ogbogu was efficient at relieving last week, and with Navy on the other hand, I’m not very concerned about QB play on the second string. That’s because the Midshipmen have the fewest points in FBS this season, are 126th in yards per game, have an average goal margin of minus 31, and put those numbers together against two teams with poor defense. I just don’t see they’re able to score enough points to keep up with anyone, especially a Houston team that isn’t afraid of defeating losing teams.

This line is within the key numbers for this area and would only provide good news about the status of Tune. I grab it here, trusting that the futility of this Navy program will bring you another one-sided loss.

NCAA Football (2 Unit) Western Kentucky Team Total Over 5/26 (-110): 7:00 p.m. CT on CBS Sports Network

This is my favorite game of the day and I am excited to see this team from Western Kentucky on national television. The Hilltoppers are involved in one of the most octane crimes in the country and should light up the scoreboard here.

Quarterback Bailey Zappe is a name to learn when he left Houston Baptist bringing in three wide receivers and his offensive coordinator. The Air Raid Offensive they bring in lost 30 or more points on all three FBS opponents last season, and in two games WKU has 3rd. The Indiana Defense they will face just has 31 points Surrendered to a Cincinnati team that struggled on offense for most of the game.

Western Kentucky was supposed to take the Hoosiers apart as they had a week off to prepare and just not give it up. Regardless of the outcome of the game, I see the Hilltoppers exceed that total.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Indiana / Western Kentucky over 63

The tradeoff with such an elite offense is that western Kentucky has difficulty stopping everyone. They gave 38 points to an Army team just playing the ball and 21 points to FCS UT-Martin. Indiana should get whatever they want behind the quarterback Michael Penix Jr.and run back Stephen Carr, and are well equipped to play in the shootout style prescribed by the WKU. This was supposed to be a back-and-forth game, and with perfect weather conditions, I see it fly over it all.

Extra bonus bet (0.5 units each): Western Kentucky +9.5 (-110) & Moneyline (+275)

It’s really simple: Western Kentucky, with its offense and speed, is always able to take at least a back door cover. They did it against the army two weeks ago and rallied from 21 down to invade the number. As I mentioned earlier, the Hilltoppers took a week off to prepare while Indiana is in a flat position after choking on their game against Cincinnati. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if WKU comes out strong and holds a significant part of this game in the lead. I love the way the spot is set up, so I’ll split a unit by taking the 9.5 points with WKU and the +275 moneyline.

Degenerate

No degeneration today.

Tiny Nick has ATS 382-286 (+89.6 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will be offering his locks and degenerate picks. Locks are the games he is sure of. Degenerate are fun but riskier picks.


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