Through Sam Panayotovich
FOX sports betting analyst
Las Vegas Raiders head coach Rich Bisaccia, who hit a 27-yard field goal in 4th place and was just 10 points behind late in the fourth quarter, is still stalking.
I held Raiders +6, another close decision that fell by the wayside.
It’s the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs and we’re suspended and loaded with two games each on Saturday and Sunday.
Here are some early best bets (31-34-1) with lines above FOX bet:
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay packers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
I’m ready to die on Packer Hill this weekend.
Bookies have absolutely no idea how healthy Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is, and it’s almost impossible to quantify the drop between Garoppolo and his rookie backup Trey Lance.
I recommended a bet on Green Bay -6 via the tip sheet yesterday and am sticking with that position. I don’t expect Jimmy G to play anywhere near 100% and I think it’s very likely he won’t play. That would likely result in the betting line being closed at the very least -7 and maybe higher.
Meanwhile, the Packers continue to make a timely recovery with left tackle David Bakhtiari, linebacker Za’Darius Smith and cornerer Jaire Alexander all expected to return after the first-round bye.
At this point in the postseason, the cream tends to rise, so I want the Packers to cruise past San Francisco en route to another NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field.
Two-Team, 6-Point Teaser on FOX Bet (-122)
If you’re unfamiliar with a two-team teaser, you can move a side or score a total of six points. But you have to win both parts of the teaser to make money.
To maximize our betting math, let’s tease the Packers down from 6 to a pick ’em and the Bills up through key numbers 3 and 7.
Green Bay packers teased by -6 to hp
The “metric bettors” love San Francisco to cover this game and I just don’t get it. The Niners needed the Dallas Cowboys to pee all the way down their leg and quiet almost screwed it up.
And now they expect either Garoppolo or Lance to head into the frigid elements at Lambeau and keep things tight? Come on. I refuse to think about it. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in football at home, and this team has been on a mission since returning from the offseason.
All the Packers have to do is win the game, so I love my chances.
buffalo bills teased by +2 to +8
It is clear that the sportsbook respects Buffalo with an opening number of 2.5. Prestigious money has since reduced that number to 2 almost everywhere in the world.
No one bought more Chiefs stock than me when they were around +700 after a shaky start to win the AFC, but this spot makes me nervous. Kansas City is the sixth-worst team in the NFL against passing (251.4 yards per game), and then there’s Josh Allen’s ability to play with his legs.
This game could realistically go either way, so I’m happy to take a touchdown with the Bills, who dominated Kansas City earlier this season.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He will probably decide against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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