How the weather affects sports betting and fantasy football


AUSTIN (KXAN) – This NFL season has been nothing short of big surprises, surprises and unpredictability. With participation in sports betting growing rapidly across the country as states increasingly legalize the practice, many have questioned the role bettor plays in shaping the odds or outcome of the game.

Sports media company The Action Network analyzed the average weather conditions at each NFL stadium over the course of the 2021 NFL regular season to determine which teams were most affected by the weather conditions. Stadiums with a roof were excluded from the analysis.

Here are the results from The Action Network:


-The Seattle Seahawks were the hardest hit by rain last season, with an average monthly rainfall of 5.26 inches.


-The NFL stadium most impacted by snow was the Buffalo Bills’ open-air Highmark Stadium. No wonder, because there is a lot of lake-effect snow in this area. Highmark recorded an average monthly snowfall of 23.72 inches.


-Chicago’s Soldier Field takes the lead in this category, recording average monthly wind speeds of 12.9 mph, while Lambeau Field (Green Bay Packers) recorded an average wind speed of 12.4 mph. A very close second.


-The Miami Dolphins are dealing with the highest average temperatures. The seasonal average was 74.4°F.


– Green Bay Packers win this category from a 38°F average temperature landslide at Lambeau Field. During the month of January last season, temperatures averaged just 19°F.

Meteorologist Sean Kelly sat down with Kevin Roth, a meteorologist from The Action Network, to get an idea of ​​which weather element plays the most important role in a game’s outcome.

They often find that extreme temperatures, whether hot or cold, steal the headline of an upcoming game and draw a lot of attention. But surprisingly, it actually has a minimal impact on the score and hence the betting odds are not affected.

“They have heated fields, heated benches, they have hand warmers,” Roth said.

High winds, on the other hand, are the key factor in the NFL that can change the outcome of a game. This doesn’t often affect the odds for one team or another, but it does affect the predicted total score.

“If you can’t throw it deep, not only are you taking away that part of your offense, but the defense is also playing along,” he said. Roth adds that you can’t kick long field goals and punts become more difficult. This could theoretically result in a lower scoring game.

When it rains, light rain is not a big problem, but torrential rain is.

“It makes the ball wet, it’s harder to throw accurately, it’s harder to catch. You’ll also see an increase in sales,” Roth said.

The different effects of snow are fascinating, says Roth.

“I’ve heard Brady and the Manning brothers talk about when it snows the whole game slows down. It slows down the defense from executing an effective pass rush,” he said.

This, in turn, gives the quarterback more time to go through those mental reads.

“And so the defender has to try to react on that slick surface, so you see a lot of defenders falling, blowing cover and the guys just going wide open and chasing touchdowns,” he said. So while it’s equally adept on offense and defense, the advantage goes to offense. This often increases the overall predicted points of the game.

Roth’s key takeaway when it comes to considering the weather for betting purposes is that there aren’t necessarily favorites or underdogs, but it can affect the over-under number.


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