Burke: Breakdown of Four More Early Bowl Games – VSiN Sports Betting News – News


Monday was a moving day for a few lines about college football bowl games and I would expect to see another round today before things settle down a bit. The transfer portal messages were part of the equation, along with some coordinators moving.

Before I dive into the games, I really want to get into the coordinator point. The head coaches have a hand in everything, but the coordinators are the ones who develop the fixtures. These are the ones who tend to have a closer relationship with the players than the head coaches. Everyone reacts to the loss of a head coach because it brings a lot of news, but I believe that coordinators are even more important in some cases, at least for bowling.

Boca Raton Bowl: App State (-3, 68) vs. Western Kentucky

This is the game I was talking about. Not only did hot OC Zach Kittley return to Texas Tech, where he was an assistant under Kliff Kingsbury, co-OC Bryan Ellis also became the OK at Georgia Southern.

To add more fuel to that fire, WKU WR Mitchell Tinsley is on the transfer portal after catching 83 passes for 1,676 yards and 16 TD. What I find most interesting now is that neither the site, nor the entirety, really pushed this game forward. There may be news that one of Kittley or Ellis will still be coaching the bowl game, but I couldn’t find one and I doubt it as recruiting is still ongoing.

I would keep a close eye on that. Some shops here in town are already at -3. Books in distant places and even a few here stay -2.5.

New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. Fresno State (-11, 50)

Ordinarily I would watch this game in Albuquerque and try to pale a team that is not used to elevation gain. Both UTEP and Fresno State are as El Paso is approximately 3740 feet tall and Fresno State is set in Mountain West. So we don’t have that angle. Running Backs coach Lee Marks is the interim head coach for Fresno state after Kalen DeBoer moved to Washington.

It’s not always true, but harsh weather tends to bet their favorites early and dogs late. This is one dog that bet early and went from 13.5 to 11, and you can even see a 10.5 rogue out there. We’ll see more movement in game week, but I think the early move is pretty illuminating here.

Edit: Fresno State QB Jake Haener is in the transfer portal. It was announced before the bowl matchup so is in the line but still a huge development.

Independence Bowl: UAB vs. BYU (-7, 54)

Tyler Johnston, struggling with a ton of injuries, is on the transfer portal, leaving UAB with Dylan Hopkins as the only experienced QB for the matchup against BYU. Hopkins played well with a TD / INT ratio of 15/6, but you are a little worried about depth, even with a team that is running far more than it is throwing.

This is another game with a slight downward move, likely due to the defensive projection of the UAB. Traveling is also much easier for the Blazers. BYU fans will travel to Shreveport, but maybe not in large groups. This could only have been a number grip north of a touchdown. I don’t think this applies to a position like some of the games I talked about yesterday.

LendingTree Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty (-8.5, 59)

This is college swan song for Malik Willis, who is expected to be a first-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Liberty has been underpowered and underperformed in many ways this season, but its line has risen with early action, and so has its totals. Liberty have allowed 50 bags this season but EMU only have 22 bags in 12 games, which could explain a higher forecast for Willis.

EMU also has a negative yard-per-game difference. Note the YPP difference. It powers a lot of early line movements during bowl games. I use CFBStats.com and the Total Offense and Total Defense pages to calculate that.


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