Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Game 7 Odds, Tips and Predictions

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The #2 seed Boston Celtics Meet the #1 seed intense heat Sunday in the deciding game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below we look at those Celtics vs Heat odds and linesand meet our expert NBA tips, predictions and bets.

The Heat kept their season alive by upsetting the Celtics as 9-point underdogs in Game 6 going 111-103 in Boston. Miami has surpassed Boston in three of the four quarters and has surpassed the Celtics in three of the “four factors.”

Miami SF Jimmy Butler had a game for eternity. He scored 47 points on 55.2% shooting (16-29) and a perfect 11-11 from the line with 9 rebounds and 8 assists.

Each team has covered the spread three times this series, but the Celtics have a net rating of plus 5.9. The Over//Under (O/U) is 4-2.

Celtics at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico sports betting; Access USA TODAY hub for sports scores and sports betting odds for a complete list. Lines were last updated at 1:50 PM ET.

money line: Celtics -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Heat +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
Against the Spread (ATS): Celtics -3.5 (-108) | Heat +3.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 196.5 (O: -112 | B: -108)

Celtics at Heat key injuries

Celts

PG Markus Smart (ankle) questionable C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

heat

PG Tyler Herro (bar) questionable PG Kyle Lowry (thigh) questionable SG Max Strauss (thigh) questionable PF PJ Tucker (knee) questionable PG Gave Vincent (thigh) questionable

Celtics at Heat tips and predictions

forecast

Heat 101, Celtics 96

money line

Lean Heat (+130) . Their scatter is the sharper game, despite the fact that the first 6 games of this series have been decided by at least 6 points.

Miami comes out on top in Game 7 because it has the best player in the series (Butler), more depth, big-game experience and continuity, and of course, home field advantage.

More importantly, the Heat are winning the possession battle for this series, outperforming the Celtics in both rebound and turnover rates.

The other two “four factors” – effective field goal scoring and free-throw attempt rate – can be very different. These areas tend to favor the home team as role players shoot better at home and home teams usually benefit from the whistle.

Additionally, Boston struggled to win close games during the regular season, in part due to the lack of a true point guard. The Celtics were 13-22 in the “clutch” with a minus 9.5 net rating. “Clutch” is defined by games with a margin of 5 points within 5 minutes.

Boston’s lack of a floor general leaves the Celtics relying on contested long 2-pointers or 3-pointers. Boston is second in 3-point attempt rating for the playoffs and Miami was second in defensive 3-point throwing rating this season. The Celtics could waste possessions with poor shot selection.

The bottom line is that the HEAT (+130) have more value in Game 7 because they’re home, have more possessions, and look simpler.

I’ll take any points I can get with Miami.

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against the spread

BET HEAT +3.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis.

According to VegasInsider.com and Pregame.com, Miami’s spread has a contrarian angle with most of the market betting the Celtics -3.5 (-108).

I prefer to be on the same side as the odds makers in these high stakes games as the markets are tight and these teams are evenly matched. It’s usually profitable to be on the same side as the house.

HEAT +3.5 (-112) is my favorite bet in Game 7.

Something to consider: If you take Miami’s pregame spread and the Heat goes up double digits early, then you can take a “middle” or “hedge” position by betting the Celtics in the game.

over under

HAPPEN.

This is a sharp total and game 7 usually plays under the total. But both teams are throwing 3-pointers, the over has conceded in 4 of 6 games this series and the over is 11-5 in the last 16 Celtics heat meetings.

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